http://www.teacherplaces.com/willd/weblog/100.html
This topic came up as part of the TeacherPlaces Book Clubs discussion of Made to Stick, by Chip Heath and Dan Heath. Click here for the first post on this topic.
In that post, I cite the following definition for this phenomenon:
The book addresses a very interesting topic on pages 159 and following: the availability bias, defined as "a natural tendency that causes us, when estimating the probability of a particular event, to judge the event's probability by its availability in our memory." In other words, "we intuitively think that events are more likely when they are easier remember" (page 160). Hence people predict that homicide takes more lives than suicide, even though there are fifty percent more suicides in the United States in a year than homicides.
Tehre is more information about this bias at Wikipedia:
"The availability heuristic is a rule of thumb, heuristic, or cognitive bias, where people base their prediction of the frequency of an event or the proportion within a population based on how easily an example can be brought to mind. In these instances the ease of imagining an example or the vividness and emotional impact of that example becomes more credible than actual statistical probability." (Source: Wikipedia).
At the Book Club discussion, Sherry raises an interesting point about whether kids will now predict a greater probability of bridge collapse because of the bridge failure in Minnesota--a greater probability of bridges collapsing than, say, having an accident on a bridge. Interesting question, and very pertinent to how our students build up cognitive biases based, in part, on how we handle the news of a particular event.
If anyone has example of this phenomenon to share, please do so here as a comment or at Book Clubs as a post. When the Book Club is finished, we can keep this topic alive here if folks are interested.
Keywords: plugged-in, project manager, recorded books